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THE PROBLEM. “The problem I see is the halting problem, in order for a computer to understand code it needs to know what it’s output should be but when the output has many paths and multiple outputs depending on inputs then it is suddenly very complex and even impossible to know the correct output.” https://lnkd.in/e2GhRte View in LinkedIn

ORIGINALITY. “What really interests me is if you can give a computer a really small amount of code but yet get it to construct something itself. I think this is pretty much how AI will work.” https://lnkd.in/e2GhRte View in LinkedIn

THE GREAT DIVIDE. “Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind.” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_explosion#CITEREFGood1965 View in LinkedIn

MASSIVE DATA SETS. "The greatest leaps forward in speech recognition and translation software have come not from faster hardware or smarter hand-coded algorithms, but from access to massive data sets of human-transcribed and human-translated words" https://lnkd.in/dAZH9Vg View in LinkedIn

NON-LINEAR. “We also don’t know if progress in machine intelligence will be linear, exponential, or otherwise. Watching an infant’s progress in learning calculus might lead one to infer the child will not learn it until the year 3000, until suddenly the child learns it in a spurt at age 17.” https://lnkd.in/dAZH9Vg View in LinkedIn

CONVERGENCE. “We will examine convergent outcomes that—like the evolution of eyes or the emergence of markets—can come about through any of several different paths and can gather momentum once they begin. Humans tend to underestimate the likelihood of outcomes that can come about through many different paths, and we believe an intelligence explosion is one such outcome.” https://lnkd.in/dAZH9Vg View in LinkedIn

CONTRARIAN. “We will not assume...that AI progress will accelerate rather than decelerate.” https://lnkd.in/dAZH9Vg View in LinkedIn

ASSUMPTIONS. “We will not assume the continuation of Moore’s law, nor that hardware trajectories determine software progress, nor that faster computer speeds necessarily imply faster “thought”, nor that technological trends will be exponential.” https://lnkd.in/dAZH9Vg View in LinkedIn

LOSING THE PATH. “We will not tell detailed stories about the future. Each step of a story may be probable, but if there are many such steps, the whole story itself becomes improbable.” https://lnkd.in/dAZH9Vg View in LinkedIn