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THE GOAL. “Longer-term space weather predictions can only be given if we obtain observations from a vantage point that allows us to monitor also the face of the Sun not visible from Earth.” https://link.springer.com/article/10.12942/lrsp-2007-1 View in LinkedIn

IMPACT OF SHORT WINDOW. “As the energetic solar particles travel to the Earth within a few tens of minutes, detection of active events in the Sun means an almost instantaneous response at Earth. Solar X-ray monitors routinely monitor the Earth’s environment providing nowcasts of the space environment.” https://link.springer.com/article/10.12942/lrsp-2007-1 View in LinkedIn

SHORT WARNING. “Thus, more detailed predictions of ICMEs as well as any predictions of activity driven by other solar wind and IMF structures not observable by means other than in-situ measurements are available only 30–60 minutes prior to its arrival at Earth.” (ICME = interplanetary magnetic cloud) https://link.springer.com/article/10.12942/lrsp-2007-1 View in LinkedIn

ACTUAL PREDICTIONS. “Details of the storm intensity can only be predicted when the ICME has propagated to L1 distance (First Lagrangian point at 220 RE upwind from the Earth) where the solar wind monitors (presently SOHO and ACE) record the polarity and intensity of the interplanetary magnetic field and the velocity and density structure of the solar wind plasma.” (ICME = interplanetary magnetic cloud) https://link.springer.com/article/10.12942/lrsp-2007-1 View in LinkedIn

STATISTICAL INFERENCE. “The polarity of the ICME structure shows a statistical dependence on the solar cycle: the preferred leading polarity rotating from south to north is observed during the rising phase of odd-numbered solar cycles, while the opposite polarity is observed during the rising phase of even-numbered cycles.” (ICME = interplanetary magnetic cloud) https://link.springer.com/article/10.12942/lrsp-2007-1 View in LinkedIn

FORECASTING PROXIES. “On the ground, the largest and most harmful currents are highly localized, which makes their detection as well as prediction challenging. In many instances, the magnetospheric activity can be quantitatively classified only based on a variety of magnetic indices and proxies derived using the solar wind input and the magnetic indices. It is clear that such proxies include both systematic and statistical errors, which limits our capability to establish causal correlations.” https://link.springer.com/article/10.12942/lrsp-2007-1 View in LinkedIn

THE VAST UNKNOWN. “In the magnetosphere, the lack of global observations of the mass and energy circulation as well as the dynamics of the electromagnetic fields still limit our capabilities to evaluate the variety of physical processes that can be associated with the observed phenomena.” https://link.springer.com/article/10.12942/lrsp-2007-1 View in LinkedIn

INSUFFICIENT PREDICTABILITY. “Beginning from the solar wind observations, a single point measurement in the solar wind, sometimes far away from the Sun-Earth line, is not always sufficient to determine what impinges on the magnetopause an hour later.” https://link.springer.com/article/10.12942/lrsp-2007-1 View in LinkedIn

LITTLE DATA. “Observations of the near-Earth space environment are sparse and information of the global properties are often not available, as the plasmas for the most part are too tenuous for imaging.” https://link.springer.com/article/10.12942/lrsp-2007-1 View in LinkedIn