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ASSUMPTIONS. “We will not assume the continuation of Moore’s law, nor that hardware trajectories determine software progress, nor that faster computer speeds necessarily imply faster “thought”, nor that technological trends will be exponential.” https://lnkd.in/dAZH9Vg View in LinkedIn

LOSING THE PATH. “We will not tell detailed stories about the future. Each step of a story may be probable, but if there are many such steps, the whole story itself becomes improbable.” https://lnkd.in/dAZH9Vg View in LinkedIn

UNPACKING CLAIMS. “We review the evidence for and against three claims: that (1) there is a substantial chance we will create human-level AI before 2100, that (2) if human-level AI is created, there is a good chance vastly superhuman AI will follow via an “intelligence explosion,” and that (3) an uncontrolled intelligence explosion could destroy everything we value, but a controlled intelligence explosion would benefit humanity enormously if we can achieve it.” https://lnkd.in/dAZH9Vg View in LinkedIn

NEW AI. "Since man’s near-monopoly of all higher forms of intelligence has been one of the most basic facts of human existence throughout the past history of this planet, such developments would clearly create a new economics, a new sociology, and a new history.” https://lnkd.in/dAZH9Vg View in LinkedIn

THE RISK. “I'm a believer in the fast take-off version of the intelligence explosion. Once a self-aware, self-improving AI of human-level or better intelligence exists, it's hard to know how quickly it'll be able to improve itself. Its rate of improvement will depend on its software, hardware, and networking capabilities." http://io9.gizmodo.com/how-artificial-superintelligence-will-give-birth-to-its-1609547174 View in LinkedIn

THE ADVANTAGES. “We list a few AI advantages that may allow AIs to become not only vastly more intelligent than any human, but also more intelligent than all of biological humanity." These include: Increased computational resources; Communication speed; Increased serial depth; Duplicability; Editability; Goal coordination; Improved rationality.” https://lnkd.in/dAZH9Vg View in LinkedIn

THE LEAP. “An artificial intelligence could rewrite its code from scratch — it could change the underlying dynamics of optimization. Such an optimization process would wrap around much more strongly than either evolution accumulating adaptations or humans accumulating knowledge. The key implication for our purposes is that AI might make a huge jump in intelligence after reaching some threshold of criticality.” http://io9.gizmodo.com/how-artificial-superintelligence-will-give-birth-to-its-1609547174 View in LinkedIn

THE PROBLEM. “The problem I see is the halting problem, in order for a computer to understand code it needs to know what it’s output should be but when the output has many paths and multiple outputs depending on inputs then it is suddenly very complex and even impossible to know the correct output.” https://lnkd.in/e2GhRte View in LinkedIn

ORIGINALITY. “What really interests me is if you can give a computer a really small amount of code but yet get it to construct something itself. I think this is pretty much how AI will work.” https://lnkd.in/e2GhRte View in LinkedIn